Unintended Consequences (TWTW – Mar 28-Apr 1, 2022)

Unintended consequences …

Nice relief rally early in the week on account of oil pulling back, respectively heightened hopes for a cease-fire in the Ukraine …

Meanwhile, Russia keeps shelling Kjiv… while we are otherwise told Ukrainian troops are pushing Russia’s army back from the area

10 year yield up to 2.53 … remember when it was a case of some stating that past 2% it was going to be a problem?

Vix below 20 – who would have thought? in the midst of a brutal war …

Oil down SPR release – ending the week just a tad under USD100 / barrel. the US of course now promising to release some SPR barrels, to the tune of as much as one million barrels a day for the next 6 months. Course the administration is also blaming the industry for not cranking up production. How about not vilifying the industry and stopping begging Saudis for Oil … (a request they duly ignored) …

$TSLA stock split – with the announcement pushing the stock up as much as 8% higher the past Monday …

Canada and emissions … Gov wants 40% drop by 2030 at the same time as they seem to finally be getting the message that Canada needs to produce more oil

Yield curve flattens … inversion has ALWAYS preceded recessions … and we apparently inverted this past week …

Europe will (?) escape recession … so says one of the policy makers there, pointing to the fact that the economy had good momentum exiting 2021.

TD ETFs – announces unit consolidation => click HERE!

Weekly performance – Thematic; Sectors; Factors:

  • Rare week when growth fared better on a relative basis …

  • strong materials performance this past week. Gold also worth nothing – with stocks (XGD) outperforming the metal … which some will interpret as being bullish 🙂

  • Decent performance this past week for both ARK as well as Travel …

 

YTD performance – Thematic/Sectors/Factors:

  • Leadership unchanged: Energy; Materials; and Financials – though for the latter the question could be: what of that flattening yield curve?

  • Thematics still on sale versus Dec 31, 2022

  • Growth and ESG lagging market and all other factors on this chart …